Listen: What happened with the Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations?

Production: By Europod, in co-production with Sphera Network.

EUobserver is proud to have an editorial partnership with Europod to co-publish the podcast series “Briefed” hosted by Léa Marchal. The podcast is available on all major platforms.

You can find the transcript here if you prefer reading:

Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia are constantly being delayed. That’s what Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky stated last week.

As his country begins to run out of missiles and financial support, can Zelensky still hope to get out of this war with dignity?

A Ukrainian delegation returned from Florida on Sunday after a round of negotiations between Ukrainians and Americans — negotiations that failed to produce any breakthrough.

At this stage, no talks between Russia and Ukraine are scheduled, even though a meeting had initially been set for early March. According to Volodymyr Zelensky, these discussions keep getting postponed by the Americans.

One major reason is the ongoing war in the Middle East, which is fully occupying the United States. This is a concern for Ukraine, which — unlike Russia — has nothing to gain from this other conflict.

Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin is benefiting from high oil prices. He’s also taking advantage of the fact that the Americans have temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil to address supply shortages in the Middle East—a move that Europeans categorically refuse.

This decision also raises questions about US intentions, especially since America halted all military and financial aid to Ukraine a year ago.

Donald Trump’s statements toward his counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky aren’t helping. Recently, he claimed that Zelensky — not Putin — is the biggest obstacle to peace.

The American president has also repeatedly suggested that Zelensky should hold elections and step aside, making way for someone else to lead Ukraine — someone who would be less tough in negotiations and more willing to make concessions to end the war.

So, what are the prospects for Kyiv?

First, let’s take a look at the situation on the ground:

The Russians continue their attacks and are preparing a major spring offensive, according to the Ukrainian military. Their goal: to solidify control over the already annexed regions.

While the pace of territorial gains has slowed in recent weeks, Russia has still managed to advance in eastern Ukraine.

In a BBC interview, Zelensky said his country could soon run out of Patriot missiles for air defence, as these are purchased from the Americans, who are currently using them in the Middle East.

Zelensky clearly expressed his fear that the Middle East conflict could drag on, further weakening Ukraine’s position.

Because while the Russian economy is heavily fueled by oil revenues, and as the US continues to disengage from the conflict, Ukraine may find itself in such a weakened position that it will eventually have to cede territory to Russia as part of a peace deal.

The issue of territory is what has blocked negotiations so far, as Kyiv refuses to give up the regions currently occupied by Russia.

Since the start of the war, all staunch supporters of Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty — led by the EU — have maintained that the war can only end with a Russian defeat, ensuring Kyiv retains its territories.

This stance has shifted over the past year. Because Russia is no longer retreating on the battlefield, and above all, because Ukraine no longer enjoys significant American support.

Kyiv is now hoping for quick negotiations, while Russia is betting on a new offensive and the exhaustion of Ukrainian forces.