Judith Arnal
Public procurement is quietly becoming one of EU’s industrial policy tools of choice. We are not the first to try this, and the evidence is sobering, warns Judith Arnal.
EU governments seek more fiscal flexibility for defence and energy, as calls grow for Eurobonds. But integrating fragmented AAA issuers to deepen the euro safe-asset market might be a more credible first step, says EUobserver columnist Judith Arnal.
When Meta announced its Libra/Diem project in 2019, central banks worldwide were confronted with an uncomfortable question: could a private technology corporation issue money at global scale and thereby erode their monopoly over monetary control?
The response was swift. What began as a defensive reflex had become a genuine policy agenda.
Europe’s push for an “Airbus of payments” reflects real fears of foreign control, but the political discourse is not getting the diagnosis right. True sovereignty lies not in replacing Visa and Mastercard, but in fostering interoperable European alternatives that compete, writes Judith Arnal.
In 2025, uncertainty became the dominant buzzword in economic debates — but that does not mean policymakers can afford to stop looking ahead. On the contrary, identifying the key economic fault lines that will shape 2026 is now more important than ever, writes economics columnist Judith Arnal.
The temptation to burn political capital on marginal increases to the MFF is understandable — but profoundly misplaced. Even the most ambitious version of this budget will represent only a fraction of Europe’s financing needs, explains Judith Arnal.
Ursula von der Leyen’s State of the Union speech announced a clever plan on paying for Ukraine’s reconstruction with seized Russian assets — it avoids the thorniest legal problem of expropriating sovereign assets, it mitigates some financial stability risks, and it delivers liquidity to Ukraine at greater scale. But will it work, asks Judith Arnal?
With €20bn earmarked for five gigafactory facilities, the EU risks allocating massive public and private resources to an infrastructure that will remain far behind what individual US firms have already achieved, warns Judith Arnal.
The EU’s core challenge is not merely market fragmentation, but a structural underdevelopment of capital markets and a macroeconomic model that exports its own savings. Recognising this distinction matters, writes economist Judith Arnal.
Rather than engaging in tit-for-tat over trade balances, the EU should focus on shaping the global rules that govern services, taxation and investment — where the real long-term leverage lies, writes Judith Arnal.
What does it actually mean for the euro area to run a surplus? In simple terms, it means the value of its exports of goods and services exceeds that of its imports. This is one of the things that irritates Donald Trump and has fueled his repeated threats of trade tariffs against the EU, writes our columnist Judith Arnal.
The US may have fired the first shot in this trade conflict, but its isolationist strategy risks backfiring. For the EU, the smartest response is not outright retaliation, but strategic unity and deeper global engagement — reserving its options if the situation escalates
European defence companies shares — most notably Rheinmetall (Germany) and Leonardo (Italy) — have skyrocketed. And, unlike other green or digital investments (where most funding will come from the private sector), defence will be predominantly financed by the public sector. Financial markets are well aware of this, which explains the sharp rise in sovereign bond yields this week.
The EU Commission will likely face significant challenges in enforcing previously adopted legislation, particularly the DMA and the DSA, which specifically target US Big Tech companies.
Avoid hasty conclusions about positive trade effects of a weaker euro with respect to the dollar. Quite the opposite: a weaker euro against the dollar, in the context of challenging economic and political circumstances in France and Germany, could signal weakness and ultimately undermine the international role of the euro.
The €800bn annual investment gap identified in the Draghi report has revived discussions on supranational debt, but common safe asset talks should progress naturally as states see the need for shared funding, such as defence.
We have plenty good intentions and recommendations: the Letta and Draghi Reports, the strategic agenda of the European Council, the political Guidelines of the president of the EU Commission and the draft mission letters to Commissioners-designate. However, it is crucial to avoid falling into various economic traps — some of which have already begun.
A relevant warning for the auto industry from history is Nokia, which went from dominating the smartphone market in the second quarter of 2007 with a market share of over 50 percent, to representing only 2.8 percent in the first quarter of 2013, writes economist Judith Arnal.
The plans for creating an EU Banking Union are now 12 years old — will they ever happen, asks Spanish economist Judith Arnal, as she takes a deep dive into the SSM, SRM and EDIS.
If a possible new Trump administration wants to set the record straight on trade policies, they’d better focus on reforming the World Trade Organization than on a trade war or expansionary fiscal and monetary policies.